본문 바로가기 주메뉴 바로가기
kiep logo

Contents

Citation

Citation
No Title

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

JEL classification: F31, G32

Keywords

Exchange Rate, Won, Dollar, GARCH Model

Language

Korean

References

  1. Wang, Y. J., Chung, C.-S. and Y.-W. Lee. 1999. “Effects and Implications for Adoption of Brokerage System in Korea's Foreign Exchange Market,” Journal of East Asian Economic Integration, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 47-79. (In Korean)
  2. Lee, C. B. 1998. “A Study on Establishment of Korea Futures exchange, Futures Market,” Korea Futures Exchange Association. (In Korean)
  3. Joo, S.-Y. 1994. “Liberalization of the Foreign Exchange Market and Risk Management,” Policy Analyses 94-14. Seoul: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy. (In Korean)
  4. Bollersleve, Tim. 1986. "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity" journal of Econometrics, Vol. 31, No.3, pp. 07-27. CrossRef
  5. Engle, Robert. 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom Inflation." Econometrica, Vol. 50, No.4, 987-1007 CrossRef
  6. FRB of New York. 1999. 1998 Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Markets.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey and Kenneth A. Froot. 1990. "Chartists, fundamentalist, and the demand for dollars." In Private behavior and government policy in interdependent economies, edited by Anthony Courakis and Mark Taylor.
  8. Gallant, A. Ronald., Rossi, E. Peter and George Tauchen. 1992. "Stock Prices and volume." Review of Financial Studies, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 199-242. CrossRef
  9. Jorion, Philippe. 1993. "Risk and Turnover in the Foreign Exchange market." In Micro Structure of Foreign Exchange Market, edited by J. Frankel et. al.
  10. Lamoureux, C. and W. D. Lastrapes. 1994. "Endogenous trading volume and momentum in stock retum volatility." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 11, 253-260. CrossRef
  11. Tauchen, George E. and Mark Pitts. 1983, "The Price variability volume relationship on speculative markets." Econometrica, vol. 51, no. 2, March, pp. 485-505. CrossRef
  12. Tauchen, George E., Zhang, Harold and Ming Liu. 1996. "Volume, Volatility and Leverage, A dynamic analysis." Journal of Econometrics, vol. 74, no. 1, September, pp. 177-208. CrossRef