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EAER Conference Proceedings

Structural Changes in the Global Economy: Global Value Chains and Financial Risks Volume 4 (2019), pp. 150-164. Session 2

DOI https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.Conf.2019.50

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Abstract

The international transmission of real business cycle during financial crisis can differ dramatically depending on the type of debt market integration. We provide a two-country DSGE model distinguishing two transmission channels of financial shocks: (i) balance sheet effect in the short-term debt market, where financially constrained borrowers are readily accessible, and (ii) efficient capital allocation through the long-term debt market, where unconstrained agents participate. Consistent with the model’s prediction, our empirical analysis shows that short-term debt market integration drives business cycle synchronisation during crisis, whereas long-term debt market integration cushions the international transmission of business cycle.

Keywords

Financial Integration, Business Cycle Co-movement, Short-term Debt, Long-term Debt, Financial Crisis, Balance Sheet Effect