본문 바로가기 주메뉴 바로가기
kiep logo

Contents

Citation

Citation
No Title

Abstract

The paper examines a modified real business cycle model of a small open economy such as the Korean economy. The model economy is assumed to produce output with two types of capital: traded capital and non¡ⓒtraded capital. Domestic individuals can borrow from the world capital market only by using traded capital as collateral, and investment in non¡ⓒtraded capital must be financed by domestic savings. It implies that the capital mobility is partial rather than perfect although domestic residents have free access to the world capital market. By incorporating externalities into the production technology, the model economy is able to generate dynamic path of equilibrium time series solely driven by non¡ⓒfundamental shocks such as animal spirits of investors or self¡ⓒfulfilling expectations if the ratio of traded capital to total capital is sufficiently high. The paper shows that the second moment properties of the Korean aggregate data could be reproduced in a modified real business cycle framework where fluctuations are driven only by non¡ⓒfundamental shocks, not by the disturbances to economic fundamentals such as technology. This requires a high value of traded capital relative to total capital, which means that the domestic capital market must be highly integrated with the world capital market. It implies that there exists some critical level of capital mobility beyond which the business cycles of an open economy becomes highly vulnerable to non¡ⓒfundamental shocks such as self¡ⓒfulfilling expectations.

JEL classification: F32, G15, G32

Keywords

Equilibrium Indeterminacy, Business Fluctuations, Non¡ⓒfundamental Shock, Sunspot

Language

English

References

  1. Backus, D. 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?" American Economic Review, vol. 84, pp. 84-103.
  2. Backus, D. 1995. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence." In T. Cooley ed. Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Ch. 11, pp. 331-356.
  3. Backus, D. and P. Kehoe. 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles." American Economic Review, vol. 82, pp. 864-888.
  4. Backus, D., P. Kehoe and F. Kydland. 1992. "International Business Cycles." journal of Political Economy, vol. 100, pp. 745-775. CrossRef
  5. Barro, R. J., N. G. Mankiw, and X. Sala-i-Martin. 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth." American Economic Review, vol. 85, pp. 103-115.
  6. Baxter, M. and M. Crucini. 1993. "Explaining Saving/Investment Correlations." American Economic Review, vol. 83, pp. 416-436.
  7. Benabib, J. 1996. "Indeterminacy and Sector Specific Externalities." journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 37, pp. 397-419. CrossRef
  8. Benabib, J. and R. E. Farmer. 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns." journal of Economic Theory, vol. 63, pp. 19-41. CrossRef
  9. Benabib, J., Q. Meng, and K. Nishimura. 2000. "Indeterminacy under Constant Returns to Scale in Multi-sector Economies." Econometrica, vol. 68, no. 6, pp. 1541-1548.
  10. Brock, P. L. and S. J. Turnovsky. 1994. "The Dependent Economy Model with Both Traded and Non-traded Capital Goods." Review of International Economics, vol. 2, pp. 306-325. CrossRef
  11. Cardia, E. 1991. "The Dynamics of a Small Open Economy in response to Monetary, Fiscal, and Productivity Shocks." journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 28, pp. 411-434. CrossRef
  12. Cheong, Yongseung. 2001. "Real Business Cycle and Its implication to Korean Economy." International Economic journal, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 69-90.
  13. Cho, Ha-Hyun. 1992. "Equilibrium Business Cycle Model and the Business Fluctuations in Korea: Time-to-Build Technology Model." Papers and proceedings at 1991 KEA Annual Conference.
  14. Cho, Ha-Hyun. 1997a. "Estimation of Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution and the Equilibrium Business Cycle Model." Papers and Proceedings at 1996 KEA Annual Conference.
  15. Cho, Ha-Hyun. 1997b. "Equlibrium Business Cycle Model for the Korean Economy." journal of Korean Economic Analysis, 03-01, pp. 29-62.
  16. Cooley, T. and E. Prescott. 1995. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle." In T. Cooley ed. Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Ch. 1. Princeton University Press.
  17. Farmer, R. and J. Guo. 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis." journal of Economic Theory, vol. 63, pp. 42-72. CrossRef
  18. Finn, M. 1990. "On Savings and Investment Dynamics in a Small Open Economy." journal of International Economics, vol. 29, pp. 1-21. CrossRef
  19. Glick, R. and K. Rogoff. 1995. "Global versus Country-specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account." journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 35, pp. 159-192. CrossRef
  20. Guo, J. and F. Sturzenegger. 1998. "Crazy Explanations of International Business Cycles." International Economic Review, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 111-133. (February) CrossRef
  21. Jeon, Jong Kyou. 2007. "Equilibrium Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy with Traded and Non-traded Capital." journal of International Economic Studies, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 143-187.
  22. Jung, Y. S. 2001. "Real Business Cycle and Its Implication to Korean Economy", Kukje Kyungje Yongu, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 69~90.(in Korean)
  23. Kim, J. Y. and J. H. Yoon. 2004. "Investment-Specific Technology Shock in an International Real Business Cycle Model: The Korea Case." The Korean Economic Review, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 75-93.
  24. Kydland, F. and E. Prescott. 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations." Econometrica, vol. 50, pp. 1345-1370. CrossRef
  25. Lahiri, A. 2001. "Growth and Equilibrium Indeterminacy: The Role of Capital Mobility." Economic Theory, vol. 17, pp. 197-208. CrossRef
  26. Long, J. B. and C. I. Plosser. 1983. "Real Business Cycles." journal of Political Economy, vol. 91, pp. 39-59. CrossRef
  27. Mendoza, E. 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy." American Economic Review, vol. 81, pp. 797-818.
  28. Meng, Q. 2004. "Market Imperfections and the Instability of Open Economies." journal of International Economics, vol. 64, pp. 503-519. CrossRef
  29. Meng, Q. and A. Velasco. 2003. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy with Endogenous Labor Supply." Economic Theory, vol. 22, pp. 661-669. CrossRef
  30. Nishimura, K. and K. Shimomura. 2002. "Indeterminacy in a Dynamic Small Open Economy." journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 27, pp. 271-281. CrossRef
  31. Park, H. S. 1999. "A Real Business Cycle Model of the Korean Economy", Quterly Economic Analysis, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 70~109.(in Korean)
  32. Turnovsky, S. J. 1996. "Endogenous Growth in a Two-Sector Open Economy with Traded Capital and Non-traded Capital." Review of International Economics, vol. 4, pp. 300-321. CrossRef
  33. Weder, M. 2001. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model." journal of Economic Theory, vol. 98, pp. 339-356. CrossRef
  34. Yoon, J. ­H. 2004. "An International Real Business Cycle Model with the Terms of Trade Shocks." Korean Economic and Business Association: Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 33­-55.(in Korean)
  35. Yoon, J. ­H. 2006a. "Consumption Habit Formation and Real Business Cycle Model", Applied Economics, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 49­-69.(in Korean)
  36. Yoon, J. H. 2006. "Consumption Habit Formation and Real Business Cycle Model", Applied Economics, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 49~69.(in Korean)
  37. Yoon, Jai-Hyung and Jun Young Kim. 2004. "Investment-Specific Technology Shock in an International Real Business Cycle Model: The Korea Case." Korean Economic Review, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 75-93.
  38. Yoon, Jai-Hyung. 2006b. "The Impact Effects of Investment-Specific Technology Shocks in a Small Open Economy, Value Function Iteration Approach." journal of Economic Research, vol. 11, pp. 127-155.