This paper empirically examines the relationship between outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) of Korean manufacturing firms and the servicification of domestic employment using a firm-level panel data. In this study, considering the issue of low productivity in the Korean service sector, we categorize service employment into core and non-core services and investigate their relationship with OFDI using the firm-fixed effects model. The empirical results show that the share of core service employment exhibits a positive correlation with the extensive OFDI. On the other hand, the share of non-core service employment, which is expected to generate relatively low valueadded, does not show a significant relationship with the extensive OFDI. When we divide the samples based on host countries and the type of subsidiaries, the impact on servicification varies depending on the technological capabilities of host countries and their participation in global value chains. Our study suggests that Korean manufacturing firm’s internationalization strategies may facilitate a transition from labor-intensive employment, like the cases in advanced countries, to technology-intensive employment through OFDI and other means.

JEL Classification: F23, F66, D22

This study investigates the impact of inflation rate fluctuations on economic growth in China, with a particular focus on potential non-linear characteristics. The global economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic notably heightens the study’s relevance. The research that the unidirectional causal relationship from inflation to economic growth in China first strengthens and then weakens over time. Furthermore, there is an inflation rate threshold effect on economic growth, identified at 2%. Below this threshold, inflation positively influences economic growth, whereas above it, the impact turns negative. This finding underscores the importance of balancing economic growth with inflation control in the formulation of monetary policy.

JEL Classification: E31, E32, E50

This study examines how the independence of monetary policy changes in situations where the interest rate differential between domestic and foreign rates inverts, utilizing the trilemma indices. For analysis, this paper uses the trilemma indices developed by Kim et al. (2017) to analyze the relationship between the monetary policy independence index and the other two trilemma indices, namely the capital account openness index and the exchange rate stability index, across 45 countries from 2002 to 2018. The analysis reveals that the trilemma’s validity is contingent. In particular, no statistically significant negative correlation was found between the monetary policy independence index and exchange rate stability index during periods of interest rate differential inversion. A positive correlation emerges between exchange rate stability and the independence of monetary policy, particularly when the inverted interest rate differential exceeds a certain threshold. This situation, where the exchange rate remains stable despite low domestic interest rates, implies that the central bank is effectively managing monetary policy to appropriately respond to economic conditions, which is reflected in the monetary policy independence index.

JEL Classification: E52, F31, F36, F41

This paper sets up a small open new Keynesian economy model with constrained households and incomplete markets to address the driving forces of business cycles in Korea. It shows that there exists a substantial fraction of constrained households who cannot have access to financial market. Furthermore, the estimated model reveals that a TANK model is better than a RANK model in explaining business cycles in Korea. The effect of domestic productivity shock on Korean economy has dominated in the variations of output, while the contribution of the foreign productivity shock to the variations of output and inflation has increased after the Asian financial crisis. The monetary policy shock has dominated the variation of inflation at short and medium horizons.

JEL Classification: E32