Contents
Citation
| No | Title |
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East Asian Economic Review Vol. 21, No. 2, 2017. pp. 167-197.
DOI https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2017.21.2.328
Number of citation : 0|
National Assembly Budget Office |
I build a small open economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the effect of a heterogeneous wage contract between regular and temporary workers on a macroeconomic volatility in a financially fragile economy. The imperfect financial market condition is captured by a quadratic financial adjustment cost for borrowing foreign assets, and the labor market friction is captured by a Nash bargaining process which is only available to the regular workers when they negotiate their wages with the firms while the temporary workers are given their wage which simply equals the marginal cost. As a result of impulse responses to a domestic productivity shock, the higher elasticity of substitution between two types of workers and the lower weight on the regular workers in the firm’s production process induce the higher volatilities in most variables. This is reasoned that the higher substitutability creates more volatile wage determination process while the lower share of the regular workers weakens their Nash bargaining power in the contract process.
DSGE, Nash Bargaining Wage Contract, Labor Market Friction, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Financial Market Fragility
During the last decade, while the imperfect financial integration condition for some developing countries has been relaxed, a relatively high level of economic volatility affected by foreign interest rates has been consistently suspected. Figure 1 shows an example of Korean government bonds market, which connectedness to the markets of primary counterpart countries has been grown recently but the volatility of spreads between Korea and the others have been fluctuated at relatively high level compared to those of the countries within Eurozone, which volatilities converged to a very low level, as shown in ECB (2006). As a financial openness does not fully explain the effect of foreign interest rates on domestic fluctuations, an investigation on the other possible factors that affect the volatility in a country with this type of financial fragility should be studied.
In this paper, I build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate this issue. To do so, based on benchmark open economy New Keynesian assumptions such as monopolistic competition, price rigidity, and financial and commodity markets openness, which are based on the seminal benchmark models such as Gali and Monacelli (2005) or Gali (2008), a quadratic financial adjustment cost is additionally assumed as a default friction to capture the financial fragility. A linear quadratic form of the financial adjustment cost is widely used in the related literature because not only it easily guarantees a steady state condition but also a model with it generally fits the data well, especially recent trends in some developing economies with specific economic conditions. Here I adopt the form of Demirel (2009) and Demirel (2010) in which the form creates interest rate differentials between home and foreign countries.
To capture the main volatility driver in the model, a polarized labor market condition is assumed. During the last decade, the labor market inequality between full-time and part-time workers in Korea in terms of duration of work and wage level has been widened. The left-side of Figure 2 shows that wage fluctuations of part-time workers have been more volatile than full-time workers’, and the gap between possibilities of working for longer term for the two types of workers has never been narrowed. Moreover, the right side of Figure 2 represents that the portion of part-time workers has been increased in the younger group while the portion in the overall ages has been decreased. These simple statistics implies that as growing portion of young part-time workers suffers uncertainty on their job security, wage level, or expectation of future incomes, and experiences less wage bargaining power. This phenomenon can also possibly affect the macroeconomic fluctuations by increasing overall uncertainty for longer terms and thus distracting the present level of consumptions of some households. In order to investigate the effect of this type of labor friction on economic volatility, I adopt a heterogeneous wage contracts assumption developed by Mattesini and Rossi (2009) and Matsui and Yoshimi (2015). In these papers, one type of workers is given totally flexible wage where the marginal utility of labor equals marginal disutility of it, while the other group of workers has a Nash-bargaining power which makes different wage dynamics between those two groups.
The main results of this paper are twofold. First, the higher elasticity of substitution between two types of workers induces the higher volatilities in most macroeconomic variables in the impulse responses to the domestic productivity shock. This is because the substitutability plays an important role in wage dynamics in the model, especially by increasing a labor elasticity of Nash bargaining power for the regular workers and thus making a wage determination process of both workers more volatile. Second, the lower weight on the regular workers in the firm’s production process also increases the macroeconomic fluctuations. This is because the lower share of regular workers has the same effect with the lower Nash bargaining power for that type of workers, hence the contract position of the workers is weaken, which ultimately induces the more unstable economic condition.
The main contribution of this paper is that it introduces a friction to the labor market in the DSGE model by inviting an inequality between regular and temporary workers to explain the recent trend in the business cycles of specific type of economy. Many economists view developing economies as financially fragile. However, these regions also have a high level of misallocation of labor demand or, at least, have a relatively weak wage bargaining power of high portion of workers, namely a temporary worker. As low level of macroeconomic growth has been globally sustained for a decade after 2008 financial crisis, quality of labor market in some developing economies has been worsened. This paper captures a part of this trend by introducing part-time workers’ different wage bargaining power which affects dynamic equilibrium conditions and overall economic sensitivities to exogenous shocks. By doing this, despite some technical limitations, the paper explains that this type of labor market friction can partially explain the sustained volatility in a financially fragile economy.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. The second section explains the theoretical DSGE model in detail. This section also qualitatively analyzes the effect of the assumed frictions on the business cycle of the economy. The third section explains the parameter values used in the quantitative analysis and notes the impulse responses of the system of equilibrium equations to various types of exogenous shocks. Finally, the fourth section concludes the paper.
The theoretical analysis of the combined effect of labor market friction and financial market fragility on the business cycles and monetary policy decisions begins by building a small open economy DSGE model. Here, I follow Gali and Monacelli (2005) and Gali (2008) as benchmark frameworks for the New Keynesian open economy model. Based on these baseline models, I adopt a quadratic financial adjustment cost to create imperfect financial market accessibility for a domestic country. In addition I use interest rate differentials between the home and world economies to replicate the foreign bond holdings in the small open economy, following the works of Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (2003) and Demirel (2010). In this setting, while a foreign country has no additional cost to access the foreign currency denominated bonds, the home country pays an additional cost to hold a certain amount of foreign assets. Additionally, I add two more assumptions for an asymmetric small open economy case. First, home and foreign countries have different size economies. The economic impact of the home country is assumed to be negligible compared to that of the world economy. Therefore, the home country is given the foreign output, consumption, and prices. This assumption makes it possible to observe the response of a domestic business cycle to exogenous foreign demand and monetary shocks. Second, domestic households can access both home and foreign currency denominated asset markets, but foreign agents can only access the foreign asset market. This is because the size of the domestic financial market is too small to be significant to the dynamics of the international financial markets. Along with these unique assumptions, I include monopolistic competition and a sticky prices framework, following Calvo (1983) and Yun (1996) to create money non-neutrality and to allow a monetary policy to stabilize economic volatility. Furthermore, the law of one price and purchasing power parity hold. Lastly, this model assumes a cashless economy, following Woodford (2003) because holding cash in a utility function does not offer any improvement to the real side of the economy and, thus, becomes a useless assumption.
Let us consider two connected economies, Home (
where
where
where
where
Note that
where
are defined as the amount of consumption by foreign households for goods produced in the home and foreign countries, respectively. Next, price indexes for the commodity markets in the home and foreign countries, based on the above preferences and aggregate consumption indexes, are given by
and
respectively. Here,
are interpreted as the price indexes of home and foreign produced goods, respectively, expressed in the foreign currency. Each of the four sub-price indexes are expressed by an aggregation, as follows:
Using the above aggregations, we can solve for the optimal allocation of demand for varieties of goods in the home country:
Next, the aggregate total expenditure for the home and foreign goods follow directly from (8):
Now, the optimal allocations of expenditure for home and foreign goods are given by:
Equation (10) completes the description of optimal expenditure allocations for the intra-temporal equilibrium of home households. The optimal allocation of foreign households consumption can be similarly derived, denoted using an asterisk.
Next, to explore the intertemporal equilibrium of a representative household, we need to define a budget constraint for the agent. Using equation (9) and the total aggregate consumption expenditure of the home agent,
where
2 is a quadratic financial adjustment cost for the domestic household, and the cost is assumed to be a non-zero, positive value when the current foreign bond holding is different to the steady-state value. Furthermore, Ψ
While the domestic agent enjoys two different type of assets and can use international risk pooling, the foreign agent is only able to access the foreign currency denominated bonds. This is the result of the assumption that captures the reality of a small open economy, in which the size of the home financial market is negligible relative to world financial market. Thus, the world's demand for the home asset can be ignored. Furthermore, there is no division in world labor force because it is useless assumption in this analysis.
The first-order conditions necessary for equilibrium are given by



where
In this subsection, I derive several relations from the previously determined optimal conditions of households, as well as some international macroeconomic definitions. First, from equations (14) and (15), I find the relationship between two different nominal interest rates:
which is a modified version of an uncovered interest rate parity in a frictional case. According to (18), the difference between home and foreign nominal interest rates is determined by the change of the nominal exchange rate, the foreign bond holding differential, and the degree of the financial adjustment cost. This frictional parity generates a different level of international risk premium from that of the benchmark. More specifically, the difference between the home and foreign nominal interest rate (
Next, let us define the real exchange rate between the home and foreign currencies as the ratio of the two countries' overall price levels, in which both currencies are denominated domestically,
Then combining (14) and (16) gives the relation between the consumption levels of the home and foreign countries in terms of the real exchange rates and the financial adjustment cost for foreign bond holdings:
According to (20), the adjustment cost for holding foreign assets becomes a factor that partly determines the difference between the changes in consumption of the home and foreign countries. This means that, if
Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the price of imported goods to that of home-produced goods,
In a special case where
Furthermore, defining an inflation rate from term
the following equation holds:
where
for any arbitrary variable
Therefore, the international risk-sharing condition (21) can be reorganized in terms of the terms of trade:
According to (25), intertemporal consumption smoothing differences across the two countries can be determined by the change in terms of trade, the commodity market openness, and the level of home country-specific financial adjustment cost. Specifically, the gap between the current amount of foreign bond holdings and the steady-state level of the bond holdings changes the positive effect of the terms of trade on the international consumption spread differences. For instance, as the financial gap increases (increasing (
is alleviated.
Lastly, for the convenience of later analysis, (18) can be rewritten in terms of the real exchange rate or the terms of trade:
The second equality uses the law of one price and the additional assumption that the foreign overall price,
I adopt the model of Matsui and Yoshimi (2015) that specifies joint employment of unionized and non-unionized workers in firms’ production function. Suppose that each home country firm
where
where
means the elasticity of substitution between the regular and temporary workers. The demand function for two types of labor inputs are derived by
where the wage index of the overall group of workers is defined by
The marginal cost of each firm
Following Mattesini and Rossi (2009) and Matusi and Yoshimi (2015), I assume there are different wage bargaining powers between two types of labor force groups. The temporary workers are given their real wages where the marginal utility of labor input and the marginal cost of the input equal,
Denotation
where the objective function of the regular workers is defined by,
and
The first order condition of the regular workers’ maximizing problem is derived by
Using (34), the relation between two different wages are derived by
where
The first equation of (38) is the labor elasticity of the Nash bargaining wage and the second one is the production elasticity of the Nash bargaining wage. Following Matsui and Yoshimi (2015) it is natural to assume that both elasticities are positive values.
Next, following Calvo (1983) and Yun (1996), the model assumes a staggered price setting. A randomly selected portion of producers, (1-
be the optimal price set by firm
Then, the problem faced by a typical firm,
subject to the international demand constraints,
where
and
and is determined by the previously derived real wage equation. Note that firm specific index
Note that in the perfect flexible price setting,
This can be rearranged using stationary variables, as follows:
where
One can now define the new price index of domestically produced goods under the staggered price setting,
A fiscal authority organizes a lump-sum tax or transfer. A monetary authority sets the level of the nominal interest rate, following a form of the traditional Taylor rule. The nominal interest rate rule is given by
where
are the output and nominal interest rate steady-state values, respectively, and
The aggregate level of output in the home country is
And the equilibrium condition for each good and labor match-up induces
The market clearing condition for each differentiated home final good,
The world market clearing condition is given by
The world output follows an AR(1) stochastic process which information is provided in detail in the next section. Therefore, it is exogenously given to the home country agents since the demand for world output from the home economy is assumed to be negligible. The home currency denominated bond market is cleared such that
And the world bond market is automatically cleared by Walras’ law. The home-produced goods market clearing condition (47) can be rewritten as
Substituting (50) into (45) gives
The law of one price and the definition of the real exchange rate are used in the second step of the above calculation. The above national account states that the overall supply of the domestic output should be equal to the demand from both home and foreign consumers, which depend on the commodity market openness and the price levels of the home country. Furthermore, for the convenience of later discussion, (51) can be rewritten in terms of price levels, private consumption, exogenous foreign demand, and terms of trade:
Note that as
Since all workers are assumed to move across firms freely, the Nash bargaining wages are identical across firms,
Therefore, overall wages and marginal cost can be also identical:
Combined with (28) and (29), labor demand functions for each group of workers are derived by
Four exogenous variables are defined here:
A competitive equilibrium is defined by a stream of endogenous variables,
with five exogenous variables,
which solves (14), (23), (25), (26), (28), (30), (32), (37), (38), (43), (44), (46), (48), (52), (54), (55), (56), and the relation between inflation and price level, 
To make the problem feasible, the first order conditions for the optimal allocation equilibrium described in the previous subsection are log-linearized. For any arbitrary variable 


















where
are defined similarly. The above system of equations can be solved by using the eigenvalue-eigenvector decomposition technique developed by Sims (1999).
1)This elasticity is discussed in detail in Christiano et al. (2010)
In this section, I quantitatively study the dynamics of variables in the model under different labor market conditions to see the effect of the heterogeneous wage contracts on the macroeconomic volatility in an economy with a financial fragility. To do so, I firstly set the parameter values, then I observe impulse responses of the equilibrium dynamics to domestic productivity shock under different degrees of the labor market friction. The baseline model is associated with the low level of elasticity of substitution between two types of workers,
and the low level of shares of regular workers firms’ production process,
To start with, I adopt appropriately established parameter values from the related literature which are not the main focus in this paper and are generally accepted in the literature. The sources of the parameters are listed in Table 1. The first set of parameters, Θ1 = {
Figure 3 shows the impulse responses of the macroeconomic variables to the negative domestic productivity shock. It represents the responses of the baseline model(“baseline”) along with the case of the higher level of elasticity of substitution between two types of workers(“high substitutability”) and the case of the higher share of the temporary workers in the production process(“less weight on regular employment”). When a negative shock comes in the economy, the output and the consumption decrease. This leads to the decline in AD curve, which increases wages for both workers. Since the productivity shock is a homogeneous one across all types of workers, the direction of its effect moves in the same direction. The increasing wage level leads the increasing marginal cost which positively affects the overall rates of CPI and the domestic inflation. In the case of high substitutability between types of workers, volatilities in most macroeconomic variables are higher than ones in the baseline assumption. The reason of this is that the higher value of
2)The data was obtained from
In this paper, I derive the equilibrium of DSGE model associated with a partially given Nash bargaining power and a financial fragility in order to study the effect of an elasticity of substitution between regular and temporary workers and a share of regular workers in a firm’s production process on economic dynamics. As a result, the higher level of the substitutability and the lower share of regular workers derive the higher level of volatilities in most macroeconomic variables. This is because the higher elasticity of substitution creates more fluctuations in wage determination process while the lower share of regular workers weakens the Nash bargaining power for the regular workers in their wage contract process.
There are many limitations in this paper which should be done in further studies. First, the welfare analysis could possibly provide more detailed or improved implications. For instance, the higher elasticity of substitution would strengthen the economy in terms of an aggregate welfare because it could possibly contribute to the efficient allocation of labor resources. Second, a comparison with financially frictionless condition is also necessary, but it was not able to be done in this paper because of technical issue that the zero financial adjustment cost condition leads a non-steady state status. A parameterization on Ψ
Price-Based Indicators for Financial Integration of Korean Government Bonds Market
Source: Fred (all rates are 3-year government bonds rates)
Korean Labor Market Conditions: Full-time vs. Part-time
Source: KOSTAT(kostat.go.kr)
List of Baseline Parameter Values
Continued
Impulse Responses to 1% Negative Domestic Productivity Shock
Fig.3. Baseline(