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Abstract

This paper studies bilateral trade balances through the lens of standard frameworks in trade. Over the past two decades, observed bilateral trade imbalances have increased notably, both in absolute terms and relative to values predicted by standard gravity models of trade. The gap between actual and model predicted imbalances is significantly larger for intermediate goods, suggesting a potential role for the rise in global value chains. Augmenting the standard gravity framework, loosely guided by the recent theoretical models with sequential production, goes a long way in accounting for the bilateral trade balances observed in the data.

Keywords

Bilateral Trade Balances, Gravity Models, Global Value Chains